Looking Back at a Knowledgebase Prediction

I just reviewed a knowledgebase landscape analysis I did for a client back in early 2005. In this analysis I identified four 'key trends' that I predicted would significantly impact this area.

The key trends and technologies which I suggested would comprise an important part of the knowledgebase landscape were:
1. Search (external and internal the organization)
2. Text Analytics (the techniques to infer meaning from text)
3. RSS (Real Simple Syndication)
4. Wikis (collaboration platforms)

With the emergence and convergence of these technologies I hypothesized that we'd see a trend away from the enterprise hierarchal solutions with robust content creation and approval work-flow, and an increase in a more free-form 'find it where it is' approach to information retrieval.

So, how did I do?

Now, with the benefit of hindsight, I would assess that I predicted one dimension of the trend pretty well, but underestimated another.

I believe I was on target with a prediction of companies moving away from enterprise knowledgebase solutions, and moving towards more free-form search solutions. This still makes strategic sense, but companies have been slower to embrace this model than I had expected (or I hoped). Additionally, tools to support this approach have not popped up or gained the visibility at the rate that I had anticipated. (There are a few, but I had expected this niche to have evolved more significantly.)

On the other hand, peer to peer support is happening faster than I had anticipated at the time; and knowledgebases are beginning to grow faster outside the company walls than within them. Because much of this content is user generated, the accuracy of that content is mixed, and companies are scrambling to figure out how to 'manage' the various media.

Of course, now looking back, it is easy to understand how a connected multitude of consumers, with little regard for planning cycles, budgeting procedures, and approval process, would be able to outpace.the corporate sector in embracing -- and in fact driving -- a new service model. There is a lot of talk among Customer Care functions about how to deal with blogs, but this is just one of many venues where customers are talking about your products and services.

Now looking forward again, I guess the key question is....how will this new model of service (particularly as it relates to knowledbases) impact the 'old' model? Despite mass collaboration and user generated content having the potential to far exceed the volume that a single corporation can generate, it's hard to imagine that a corporation's need to manage and maintain accurate information and positioning will ever truly go away. I suspect a knowledgebase model that embraces, guides, and clarifies consumer generated questions, answers and commentary, will be the ideal model for the foreseeable future.

What do you think?.